Monday, 28 February 2011

EUR/USD short

Short position on EUR/USD, @ 1,38, SL 1,39, TP 1,3650

There's no much explanation here, it's just my personal view. Divergence and return to the 50-100 MA's on 4h, ranging bollinger band trade on the daily



USD/CHF long 0,9290

Good evening boys and girls,

I feel a bit frustrated, as I haven't took that GBPCHF position I was talking about, haven't thought it would develop so quick, and there has been lots of movement in the market for a Monday. I guess lots of news data, this week are NFP, so it's positioning of the big.

I've gone long now USDCHF, @ 0,9290, SL 0,9210, TP 0,9450.

I'll do some charting and analysis, and hopefully come up with some new stuff.

Cheers,

ivan



Sunday, 27 February 2011

Thanks

Thank you all that have been following me, putting me on your blog list and reading! It has very positive influence for me to improve!

Best regards,

ivan

USD/CAD

This pair is giving me trouble now.

It's also going south, constantly. Now I've been a prophet searching for reversals.

On the daily, and weekly (longer period MACD histogram), it's been showing signs of bullish divergence.

From the pivot point of view, you can see that he totally missed last two pivot points. I mean, it's not something usual, as every pair almost all the time at least touches it's daily pivot, not to mention spend some time around it.

I would like to see him going north, so I can say I told you so :-)

No exact entry point also, just an observation.



GBPUSD and EURJPY

I'm going to post a daily charts only.

EURJPY is showing signs of weakness. With a divergence on the MACD, and breakout of long trend on the RSI, I could try some sells targeting around 108,50 ... more sustainable trend. I'm not so sure about this one though.

On GBPUSD it looks kind of better, eventhough there is no so much space between those 2 trendlines. If the price breaks the steeper one, it will be around 1,60 - also a round number and lots of fights have been fought around that number. Breaking of 1,60 I'll be shorting the pound, targeting 1,5750.


USDCHF and GBPCHF

My USD/CHF is really coming close to my long entry point.

For GBP/CHF I really cannot see anything clear. It's reaching all time lows, constantly. I might be jumping the gun, but on shorter time frame, 4h chart, it looks like it found a low, and could retrace between it's 50-100 MA's. I'll take a long position, no exact figures yet, but it will be near current market, targeting 1,5315, with a stop loss below the blue line. It's around 100 pips SL, and 300 TP.


GBP/JPY

My first pair is again GBP/JPY

as you see, I like to play with fire :-)

We'll take this journey from the monthly chart. As you can see, looks like the pair found a low, with slightly positive bullish divergence on the RSI. Also breakout of the huge triangle could pointing upward trend.

Weekly chart is showing similar picture.




On daily, long entry is not so clear, and looking at 4 h chart, my favorite strategy, I'll be looking for a long position returning to the 50 and 100 MA's, when I see increasing long period MACD histogram (it's just regular figures x 5).

I've put it on the 4h chart, so beside normal MACD, I can see 4x5 which is 20 hours, almost one day MACD histogram development. So it's kind a bigger picture on the same chart.

Interesting but so far no positions.





Last week recap

Hi guys, I'm looking forward to write you again.

I wish I could spend more time on the blogs community, looking and commenting on other people's posts.

Unfortunatelly, work and my year and seven months old sondoesn't give me much space :-)

Let's recap the last week,

I've had 2 positive trades, and one negative.

GBP/JPY short + 154 it was really a good divergence on the daily chart, and the pair fell right down to the low bollinger band on the daily...


EUR/USD short + 95 this was a trade when the pair hit R3, looked overextended and I've taken an opportunity to profit from the correction. It's kind a tricky.

My last trade didn't went well, it's GBP/JPY long, which ended - 100 pips, was from the pivot strategy, pair hit S3 daily level and bounced back, I've taken a long position, targeting pivot point, but ended up negative.

That's life, so to put it all together it's +149 pips for the week.

Now I'm comming to the fun part of next week's analysis and setups.

Thursday, 24 February 2011

February 24th

Hi friends!

Last 2 days I was an observer in the markets. Some setups I've noticed, and will concentrate on that for the next week.

Both EUR/CHF and USD/CHF have unsustainable downtrend. While USDCHF is clearly showing bullish divergence, I'll wait for an entry around 93,50 targeting 95,20 (more sustainable downtrend). with stop no more then 40 pips.


I'll be a buyer on EURCHF around 1,2850 targeting return to the 50 and 100 SMA, around 1.30 with stop loss 1,2750.



Haven't thought GBPJPY is going to make such a big move downwards, and exit my last short position @ 133,50....

At this moment it looks very overextended. It broke daily R3 zone, and make a small return back, I'll go long 132.20, SL 131.20, TP 1.3380 (return to the daily pivot, which also was totally missed today!).

Tuesday, 22 February 2011

GBPJPY short + 154 pips


Woohoo, closed my gbpjpy also in profit! Trading gods have been merciful to me this week :-)

If you haven't noticed it today, EUR/USD broke the S3 level of daily pivot points, which was really an indication of overextending .... and then retraced up more then 150 pips right to the pivot point.

Amazing!

I'm putting up chart so you can see. It's one of the strategy I'm trying to trade, it's doesn't happen that often, that a pair hits S3 or R3 in the same day, but when it does, if it starts going back I'm jumping in and exiting on the pivot level. This today I haven't grabbed.


Wohoo EURUSD + 95

From the trading ideas this week, I've decided to take EURUSD and GBPYJP short positions.

Luckily, due to the fly to safety regarding Libia situation, EURUSD hit my profit target +95 pips, and GBPJPY is still open.

We'll see, hopefully I'll produce some more trading ideas for this week, but experiencing some lack of energy and brain power.

Sunday, 20 February 2011

Trading ideas for week 21st of February

I'm looking at charts, cannot really spot any instant entries. I'm just going to post some ideas and references.

On weekly chart, GBP/JPY looks bullish but trading in a range whole year. This could be a surprise box.


Daily chart is showing some exchaustion in the momentum, trading at the top of bollinger bands, with bearish divergence on oscillator.




Also 4h chart is showing me that I should try short, at market, with stop above previous highs and targeting 133,05.


EUR/USD and EUR/CAD have almost reached their daily R3 on Friday, and think they could exhaust a bit and move down to pivot points.




That's it for now! If I see anything new, I'll let you know!


Summary of week 14th - 19th of February

EURCAD + 165
GBPCHF - 68
GBPJPY - 88
EURGBP - 24
USDCHF + 129

TOTAL: + 114 PIPS

It was a tough week, GBPCHF stopped me out and then went south, I almost got stopped out on USDCHF, been within 10 pips to stop loss, but managed to survive and price went back and hit my profit target, and of course went another 100 pips in my direction. I haven't put any orders from Wednesday till end of week, was too tired after work to look at charts.

Hopefully I'll get myself more organized and put some weekly analysis this evening and get ready for a new trading week!

Thursday, 17 February 2011

AUDUSD hidden divergence



There is one just for the record, school example of hidden divergence. Price is making a higher low, and indicator making a lower low. Haven't took advantage of this trade.

Wednesday, 16 February 2011

Hi folks! It was a great battle this week. I'll continue to fight until end of week and count my dead afterwards.

For now, there are EURCAD long, USDCHF short open trades.

Tuesday, 15 February 2011

EURCAD long +165


I'm aware of the downtrend on daily, but due to the previous day pin bar rejection of the low bollinger bands, I've opened EURCAD long @ 1,3355 SL 1,3260 TP 1,3520, looking for retracement between 50-100 EMA on 4h chart.


GBPJPY stopped out - 88 pips

It looks like it was a wrong decision to go short, on the daily level,
between 1 and 2 standard deviation of the bollinger bands, price is holding
on the upside, in the buy zone.

Everyday I learn something new :-)

Cheers,

P.S. Looking forward to get stopped on GBPCHF also!

Monday, 14 February 2011

USDCHF short +129



I've decided to short USDCHF @0,97 targeting 0,9570 with a tight stop loss @ 0,9750

Now I have 3 open positions, with one pending order of GBPUSD short if it breaks 61,8 % of the retracement on the daily chart.

AUDJPY

AUDJPY is channel trading, and also showing not strong enough to break
current resistance. On 4h chart, if it breaks this 5 days trend, I'll be
looking for a sell @83,40 targeting around 82,80.


GBPCHF -68

S/L hit, -68 pips!


On GBPCHF I also notice bearish divergence on daily chart, with the pin bar
on previous day.

I'll be watching, and hopefully short the pair @ 1,5515 which is the level
below previous lows, targeting between 1,53-1,54.

EURCHF hold

EURCHF is currently @ previous support and potential resistance zone, also
showing signs of bearish divergence. Will hold and wait for this one.

EURGBP long -24

EUR/GBP is resting on triangle support line, I took a long position @
0.8433, SL 0.8410, TP 0.8510

GBPJPY short

Like you saw last week, again I managed to overcomplicate things…. This is
going to be tough!

Today one of the positions I took is GBPJPY short @ 133.52, SL 134.40, TP
131.20

From daily chart I can see rejection from previous high, and on 4h chart
loosing of upward momentum and possibly returning to the MA's.

Sunday, 6 February 2011

Sunday evening analysis

EUR/USD
















Possible retrace to 1,34
RSI - short
CCI - long
Stoch - long

Bearish divergence on short (yellow) CCI


GBP/USD



Long term resistance @ 1,6280
Up channel
RSI - short
CCI - short
Stoch - long


EUR/JPY


Short channel down breakout
RSI - short
Stoch - short
CCI - neutral to short
S/L 113
TP 110

GBPJPY


All indicates long position
Stop @ 130
TP @ 137

EURCHF


Standing on the resistance level
Buy on breakout strategy
RSI - sell
CCI - buy
Stoch - buy

Divergence on short term (14) stochastics

USDCHF


RSI - long
CCI - neutral
Stoch - neutral

Buy on breakout of resistance @0,9650
If it test resistance and bounce off possible sell
Support line at 0,9330

EURGBP

Inside triangle
RSI - short
CCI - short
Stoch - long
Buy @0,8330
Sell @ 0,86
Wait for breakout







Distorted trading

I hear and I forget. I see and I remember. I do and I understand.

Chinese Proverb

Hi everyone. This blog will not be about me teaching you but me teaching myself. As for the time being, I was trading inside myself, subjective to emotions and without anyone know what I think, feel and do. After reading all possible literature, I've found myself doing the same mistakes all over again. So I figured out I'm going to open a blog with main intention to keep my thoughts, emotions and trades open to public. I'll run my personal open trading diary which can be then subjective to critics.


There is one interesting story I've read, and I’d like to share it with you. It's from one of Trevor Neill's conference talk.

It has been proved, that if you put a frog in boiling water, it will jump out right away. But, if you put it in like warm water, and heat it slowly, you can cook a frog alive. It won't go out of the water.

This story hit me so strong, because I’ve realized that I've experienced it in many ways in my life.

When you have a position in equity, if it suddenly drops 10 %, you're going to jump out immediately. It will be a shock and natural defensive mechanism. But if it's been slowly falling, day after day with -0,2 % daily, you're be always thinking, it’s not a big deal, it will come back eventually. But most likely you will end up loosing a great portion of your capital. To rephrase it, like a frog, you will be cooked alive.

I have been cooked alive too many times in the markets, and also haven’t been disciplined in following my trading strategy but rather jumping from one to another every couple days. This inconsistency also cost me money, time, knowledge and confidence.

I wasn’t treated trading as a business, but likely as a game. Another mistake is that I was always trying to be trend predictive, happy when I succeed and frustrated when I don’t.

This I can compare with my school days. For a long period of time, I’ve rejected to practice math in order to learn and get best grade. I really haven’t done it at all. Learning for me was that you pick up out what you can by listening on the class and that’s it. I even refused to write on the class in the notebook. After that no work has been done, except 1 day before an exam I would just flip around through the book, see if there is some formulas I need to know and that would be it.

Then when I come to an exam, see some math problem for the first time in my life and get right on solving it. If I succeed in solving it and get a decent grade (not the worse one, not the best but somewhere in the middle), which was always the case, I felt like being on top of the world, because I’ve done something not by learning from others but from my own intelligence abilities.

It was better then practicing all possible math problems, known every type of task that can arrive and then finish the test blindfolds and be happy because you think you outsmarted others or even outsmarted yourself. You didn’t.

I’ve respected but haven’t really cared about the folks who got the best grades, because I knew they were going through the book and learned it from there. There was no creativity in this. No mental challenge.

In the same manner I’m behaving in my trading. Rather then learning and practicing and writing out all the things I can about the market, I’ve been doing the same thing… I have some basic knowledge, and day after day I’m writing an exam, in front of the screen, trying to figure out where the market goes. If I succeed, I’m a genius, if not then a whole bunch of negative emotions arrive in my consciousness. It is something beyond my abilities, of course. I’ve overestimated myself.

Another thing is that I guess I enjoy the rush of excitement in the markets, rather then subject myself to strict rules, and make a trading just like any other boring business. This is not a good approach folks.

For now, it got me nowhere. So from now on, I’m going to write down my trades, thoughts and reasons behind them and try to learn something from it, by reading it from time to time.

For you who decide to track me, hope you'll learn from my mistakes, and find something useful on my blog.

Cheers,

Ivan