Thursday, 31 March 2011

Diamond on GBP/CAD

One more long term analysis, I've drawn while sitting and watching charts. Maybe this could mean trend reversal?




Wednesday, 30 March 2011

Aussie rules

What a strongish of Aussie. I'm lack of ideas for my swing trading this week.

Eventually I've taken long at AUD/JPY, looking at 100 pips profit for now, this is the position trade I'm planning to build.

Still holding EUR/USD short, was twice + 200 pips and back, picture on the weekly haven't changed, so I'm having the same view on that.


Monday, 28 March 2011

Cable in a huge triangle

I still owe you charts of my short trades.

Just one trade idea. It's cable, on weekly chart. Huge triangle, I'd love to go short, but already have much position opened.


NZD/USD

Some observation regarding NZD/USD, shorting this pair considers negative rollover, but take into account a channel in which he's moving.

Short EUR/CHF and NZD/USD

I have been short EUR/CHF and NZD/USD this morning. My regular 4h trades. I will provide my charts later.

Sunday, 27 March 2011

Trading notes for next week!

AUD/CAD have missed its weekly pivot point ~ 0.9755 and have touched his R3 point in Friday.

NZD/USD missed its weekly pivot point ~ 0.7300

AUDJPY missed its weekly pivot point ~ 79.50

AU/USD missed its weekly pivot point ~ 0.9955 and its currently @ top 800 bollinger band. Quite extended if you ask me.

USD/CHF have been outside lower 800 bollinger band and returned outside the bands. Possible continuation upward.

Saturday, 26 March 2011

Position trading

My friend The Market Cycle have been teaching me basic principles of position trading.

He is an excellent trader and programmer! Very hard working guy! Check out his blog when you have time! You won't understand the language, but you'll find some interesting stuff on english just by searching through the blog.

Anyway, due to that I'm studying long term charts I'm trying to find something interesting for building longer term positions.

Generally, these pairs I've chosen are the extreme in terms of interest rate differentials, and carry most rollover profits.

I've decided to try building a position from small to larger one, trading the extremes where rollover and the price (hopefully) go in my favor.

With AUD/CHF I see some resistance too close to my entry price, so I think my choice is going to be AUD/JPY.

This is purely long term channel trading. Haven't entered any of the market yet. I'm going to do analysis of the other pairs as well.

Have a nice day!



Last week recap

Only one trade registered

EURAUD short + 185 :-)

I'm holding of course EUR/USD short position that I've mentioned, @ 1.4230 with target around 1.35-1.30. This is not my usual 4h setup but pure logner term support / resistance trading.

Friday, 25 March 2011

EUR/USD 1W chart

I know everybody is long, but I cannot resist myself. I'm short bias here.


Wednesday, 23 March 2011

EUR/USD @ major resistance

EUR/USD is @ major resistance on monthly chart. I've taken some shorts but haven't posted the pictures upfront, so I won't count it in my pips report. I have an idea of building that position, and running it 1.30, if it gets there of course. I'll provide my charts analysis on the blog later on.

For EUR/AUD, I've closed it +185. Don't like holding it more then 3 days in one week. Decided to collect what's on the table.

Monday, 21 March 2011

EURAUD trade

I'm sitting in around 100 of open profit. Should I close it or not, that is the question :-)

The picture now looks like this! It broke other trend line. I'm leaving it!





Sunday, 20 March 2011

EURAUD short



EURAUD short @ 1.4232, SL 1.4370 (137 pips), TP 1.3970 (263 pips)

Pair is out of 800 top bollinger band. It also totally missed it's weekly pivot. It broke 3rd up trend phase. Exhaustion is possible.

Daily chart analysis

EURUSD is mainly driven by Japan and Lybia issue. To me it looks like trend exhaustion. I would be selling if it breaks the black trendline.

EURJPY is going sideways for quite some time. I would be looking for a buy, on the breakout of black line, @ 116. Otherwise, sell when continuation of the movement can be seen.

GBPUSD looks to me like in a second phase of the uptrend. Quite strong, too bad I haven't held it till the end but closed it early.

EURCHF is in downtrend. Don't know what smart can I say, on daily chart...but wait to see end of that triangle.

EURGBP seems strong, it's in third phase of the uptrend. Exhaustion could be comming.

AUDUSD broke the third and the second uptrend phase, correction to the first is inevitable. We could see it @ 0,9550 before continuation of the trend.

That's my daily analysis. Standard 4h chart setup for entries will be comming!











Recap 14-18 / 03

Last weeks recap:

EURGBP - 55
EURGBP - 45
GBPUSD + 135

TOTAL + 35 pips

I'm looking forward to post some analysis afterwards.

Thursday, 17 March 2011

GBPUSD closed

+135 pips. It stopped between 50-100 SMA on 4h chart, seems like forming a flag (on 1h TF can be seen better), but I've decided to exit. Initial TP was 200 pips, which was quite far away.

We'll see if I made a good call.

17th of March - trade ideas

Hi my trader friends!

I'm stopped on EURGBP, but still alive and around + 100 on GBPUSD of open profits.

I'm looking to buy AUDUSD, there is a slight divergence on MACD and break of unsustainable downtrend. Targeting area between 50-100 SMA.

Exact entry I'll post when I come home and open trading station.



These two are potential setups for shorting, but not yet - just to have in mind!






Happy St. Patrick's day


Wednesday, 16 March 2011

New trades

Nothing from reversals I've posted, yet.... market is just one way street. Sorry for people of Japan, situation is just getting worse, I hope we'll hear some good news soon.

I've taken 2 trades,

First is GBPUSD long @ 1.59984, SL 1.59400 (58 pips), TP 1.62000 (202 pips)

GBPUSD is resting on 4h longer term support line, I think it will hold it.

After stopping out, I've entered again on EURGBP short, @ 0.86696, SL 0.87150 (45 pips), TP 0.85800 (90 pips).

This is my regular trading setup. We'll see this time.

Best regards,




Trade ideas

Stopped out from EURGBP short.

Don't have any new trade, only trade ideas if MACD changes polarity.

AUDUSD is hoovering around 800 SMA on 4h chart and broke today's S3. Will see if it's going to rebounce from that.

EURJPY hit it's 800 SMA also. Long trades when divergence occur or MACD turnes positive.

GBPCHF is 2 standard deviation south from 800 SMA. It's also overextended, broken it's daily S3. Also no trades at the moment, but looking for longs (short covering rally).

Best regards,

ivan





Monday, 14 March 2011

short EURGBP



It's not quite perfect trade but I've took it.

Some bearish divergence, MACD histogram decreasing and possible retrace to the 50-100 SMA area, with this time bigger risk/reward ratio.

So Short EUR/GBP @ 0.86504, SL 0.87050 (55 pips), TP 0.85550 (95 pips)

Past trade

Hey traders!

Wish you a good week and for people from Japan I'm expressing my deepest feelings of compassion.

I've taken GBPUSD long position yday, since it was resting on a longer term trend and also my usual setup on 4h chart, positive MACD and retrace to the 50-100 SMA area.

It's already closed +94 pips but since I haven't posted the trade up front, I wont count it in my weekly statement.

I'm experiencing some lack of energy lately, eventhough I had a good trade, cannot really find anything smart at the moment, that I could extract and put on the diary sheet.

Wish you best regards,

ivan



Sunday, 13 March 2011

Last week recap

EURJPY short + 129
USDCHF long + 123
GBPCHF long -119


Total: + 133 pips.

Looking forward to check on the market and find some trading ideas for the next week :-)

Wednesday, 9 March 2011

GBPCHF long


BUY 0.100M GBP/CHF @ 1.50694, SL 1.49500 (119 pips), TP 1.53000 (231 pips)


some hidden divergence on 4h .... let's see what happens, before BoE minutes

take care,


Tuesday, 8 March 2011

Target met


Finally closed USDCHF + 123 pips. Good start of the week.

Monday, 7 March 2011

6-11th of March

Entered short EUR/JPY @ 114.79, SL 115.70, TP 113.50.

I'm providing the chart, possible correction to the 50-100 SMA's, 4h MACD histogram negative.

Also, some bullish hidden divergence on USDCHF, still holding that long from last week.

More on this week's analysis is comming!







Small vacation

Hi folks, I've took a couple of days off. I have still some open positions from last week, so no new trades at the moment. I'll be back today evening with some trade ideas for this week. Best regards, ivan

Friday, 4 March 2011

morning thoughts

Its funny how all this influences me on subconscious level. I feel like I'm constantly in the market, even when I'm not looking at charts. It's like my brain is processing levels, figures, movements, strategies, plans, what i need to try out, test, look, read, check.....and that happens all the time.

I've over clocked my processor (brain) :-)

This causes me to be really burned out at evenings, cannot really think anymore. Do you have the same problem? Sometimes I even dream trading ...

As much as I'm trying to distance my emotions and myself from trading, it's not quite working. It looks like it took control over me and like an addiction, is always present.

Am I enjoying the trading itself? It's really a hard question. For me it's more like a battle with myself, and a struggle that this is something that has to work out for me, to pull me out of the poverty and uncertain future.

Then I say to myself, did you have to choose the most volatile, uncertain and riskiest business in the world, that should get you out of the uncertainty of the corporate jobs, mortgage payments and other shits I’m experiencing... Didn't I should choose something easier instead?

And the answer is I don't know. The expression "It takes money to make money" hit me over the head the other day. I see people earn enormous amounts not risking anything, and I'm here, risking my small savings and putting it on the line of fire, to earn something for a living? I don’t want to be a gambler. But it’s not only the job, it’s also some health problems that I’m experiencing and that are working against me … So here I am, doing exactly what I shouldn’t be doing, trading for money, trading from a pure need.

It’s like it doesn’t work that way. First you need to have money, then you should have the money you don't really need, then you have to learn to trade, and then you could put it in the markets and try out your skills.

So, what I'm doing is completely different. I'm looking at it as a longer term project, but still, there is always doubt, if this is right thing to do?

I read somewhere; this is really hardest easy money you can ever make....

Thursday, 3 March 2011

Current week standings

Current week standings:

AUDUSD + 95 pips
USDCHF - 80 pips
EURCHF + 147 pips
EURUSD - 100 pips

current closed profit : +62 pips

Tuesday, 1 March 2011

AUDUSD short

I've opened a short position on AUDUSD @ 1,0185, SL 1,0220, TP 1,0090. Strategy is the same I've used before, looking for a retracement, as momentum has been downwards on MACD and also a little bearish divergence at sight. On the daily, looks like 1,02 has been good resistance so far. Also, pair should return to the more sustainable trend.